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Todays contest features Donavan Mitchell of the Jazz Paul George and Russell Westbrook of the OKC Thunder. Looking at trying to take down the Milli today we certainly want to look at stat trends as well as DVP. Season long stats and even matchup on a certain player don’t tell us the story depending on what’s at stake. So let’s get in to it.
Well what else can be said for this rookie who has come out of nowhere this season to lead this Jazz team. He may not win rookie of the year but he should and is that good. What does that say for our game tonight when setting our line? On the season he averages just over 20 points per game and just over 4 rebounds and 4 assists. In game 2 Mitchell put up 28 points 10 rebounds and 2 assists. If you played him with season averages you were disappointed as he outscored his season averages except in the rebound category. Why was this the case? A few factors for the scoring output was game flow. Although the Thunder are an average pace team the game flow determines pace when you’re facing Westbrook. If your down Russ is going to press harder and therefore the pace up begins to take shape and that will lead to more shot attempts by a shooter like Mitchell.
Expectations can most likely be similar to game 2 in this case and if you want to differentiate your line ups, the suggestion would be to lower the points scored total and rebound total while bumping the assists. Variance in your line should for points be 20 -25 Rebounds be 4-7 and assists 4-7. Game theory for Mitchell’s line is that the Thunder will make adjustments on the scoring side and that will lead to more assists and slightly less rebounds. OKC should defend his shot better, however if you’re looking to take down a GPP today you might throw a 28-30 point line in to be contrarian in that category along with the lower projections for Rebounds and assists. Projected Playline 22-5-6
Season averages for George are just over 21 points , just over 5 rebounds and just over 3 assists per game. Taking into consideration variance and that this is a playoff game and the defensive prowess of the Jazz we need to make adjustments. His stat line from game 2 were 18 points 10 Rebounds and 1 assist. It’s never a good idea to chase game logs, but in this case the points and rebounds are perfect for what can be expected for game 3. George is the second option on this team and if Mello gets hot he could become the third.
Looking to nail this projection down the line for points should be between 15-20 and Rebounds 7-10. Assists would come from him driving and passing in the lane this game so assuming he’s option two you can be safe at his average of 3-4 assists on the night. George is one of the more frustrating players to figure out this season and that has been the case here in the postseason. Projected Playline 18-7-3
Mr. Triple Double, well almost for game 2 but he was shy by a single rebound as he went 19-9-13 for game 2. What can we say about Russ he’s either way over season averages or sucks, it;s true. If you plug-in his season average to a Playline contest you might win 1 out of 20 times with Russ. On the season his averages are just over 24 points and hovering just over 10 and 10 for rebounds and assists. Call it bold but those numbers are close to the projection that will be his perfect line tonight. If the Thunder want to take the lead in this series Russ will need to go all Russ on the Jazz. For variance on Russ you want to hover around those averages for the season give or take a few points 26-30 for points 10-13 for rebounds and assists. If he’s in the mood tonight his Playline should look like this Projection: 33-10-10.
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Remember to win large field contests on Playline you must have a unique lineup. Choosing to take one category as a punt if you will is the way to go and Russ is a great example. Most of the smart players won’t play Russ at 10-10 rebounds and assists just due to game logs and trying to avoid those who might be reading them. If you go this route and bump his points up expecting him to take over the game, you should score well and be in the top of your contest Good luck tonight.
Welcome to DFS Brilliance, I try to break down the not so obvious best plays and sometimes they are pretty obvious. Looking at the main slate today I want to try an attack it with 3 games that I have researched and determined have the best match ups and potential for some high scores for your GPP Lineups,
I love the Rockets-Knicks matchup and just looking back at some of the points Harden puts up he’s my top play who should easily make value.
Top stacks Rockets – James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela.
If this game stays at all competitive which I think it will based off of how poorly NY played last night I think they come with a strong effort. I’m not opposed to Running back at this stack with Tim Hardaway and the zinger but keep your eye on news about wheter or not Kanter plays as that would change my entire theory on a full Houston Stack here. If Kanter plays I love Paul as a one off. and would focus more on the game below.
Top stacks 76ers – Joel Embiid and TJ McConell, Sarcic.
With Ben simmons out the minutes are locked for TJ and Embiid’s usage goes up to 39.1% according to Rotogrinders Court IQ Tool. Sarcic scores an average of of 4.8% more according to that same tool. on the other side of this game I like Vucevic as a one off if you want to stacjk this game. I like Payton but his price is a little too high and there are better point guards to target if we’re gonna load up on studs.
The obvious – SO I am pretty sure most people will be playing Steph Curry with KD already ruled out today. the news that we need to her fron this game is on Draymonds status. If Draymond is in this game looks like it will play out on the vegas numbers which is currently at -11 in favor of the dubs. Note that the spead started out at -14 so there has been movement towards the Pels.
If your going after ths game, I am!! I am stacking Steph, Bell, Klay. This again is all predicated on if Draymond is out. if he is I am stacking right back in this game with Rondo, AD and Cunningham.
My pain today – What do I do with so many good matchups today do I play the bigs from the Pels and the PG’s like Steph and Russ? I am torn as I do my own research I try to decide before I see any industry news what I think the plays are going to be and after I read some articles today I am torn on wheter to go stars and scrubs or balance with a few big guns.
Here’ is an actual lineup I will be playing in the main slate today on FanDuel. Good Luck and please if you win send me some shout outs on twitter @VatmanP
Tonight I used a DFSKARMA lineup. I also used some late breaking news to play a lineup in the $25 entry late slate that I nearly won. The revenge narrative was in full effect as Jordan Bell went off and was a must have in a blowout game that he dominted on the glass with the absence of Draymond and KD. Tomorrow I will be back at with a few cash lineups and a short slate article of strategy and best plays for a small late slate $25 to $33 entry GPP.
Well on the night I won a small amount on my entire buy in. I wanted to goback and breakdown my strategy and share the resullts. I bought in for $80 and won $66. My main plays I built around were Bo Horvat and Del Zotto from the Canucks. First off I’m never dissapointed when I beleive my process wa on point. You may ask what do I mean by that? Simple when I look back at what I’m trying to do tonight, I was in it to hit big. And I had a feeling that fading the chalk which was the Flyers goalie and offensive stacks I would have a unique lineup and low owned players. I had both! At the end of the day I simply had the wrong scorers for the Nuck’s I needed to have Boesers and Vanek they did all the damage. the importance of the following is the key to winning big. If both of my players score a goal and assist on the other I am in the top 5 of most of my entries. they didn’t and I pretty much won my money back but the lesson to myself and others should be the game theory and that my friends employed regularly will eventually hit big. until next time feel free to hit me up on twitter @VatmanP
When I look to build multiple lineups for DFS I always start with my value and potential low owned players, For that I generally go over to Linestar and check on their projections. I don’t know how accurate they are to the decimal but I use them and once my contest starts they are generally in the neighborhood of what they said. I’m looking for low ownership because that’s how I am ultimately going to win GPP’s. Tonight I am focusing on a few things for my games to target. #1 I like the growth of the youth on the Canucks and Bo Horvat and the top line is taking a lot of shots on goal. Note here that the industry including my own optimizer I use at Roto QL is on the Philly side with Neuwirth. Perfect could not be in a better spot to pull off a huge win with most players trending towards that goalie I like the Nuck’s spot tonight. Lot’s of shots equals potential goals. I am also not off of Philly in fact I think we may have a 4–3 game. #2 I’m targeting Jake Allen and for this simple reason; I think the Blues and Vegas thinks the Blues will win. His price tag and recency bias will keep people off of him which is perfect. I am penciling in 15 to 20 Fantasy points right of the bat so about 2.5 times price tag. #3 Fade the chalk right? Right? Wait no no no, I will end up having alot of shares of McDavid and Shenks and if a few punts and my overall game theory is on tonight I could turn my $80 into several hundred or even a big win. If I hit tonight it’s great if I don’t win a cent that’s ok to, the reasoning is this if I am gambling tonight which I am this is not a cash lineup it’s a lotto ticket with some good game theory that should pay off. I as always will post results tomorrow morning good luck tonight guys.